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Monday,07/09/2009 - 08:48
VietnamDaklak 2009/10 coffee crop may fall 6 pct
Vietnam& # 39;s 2009/10 coffee season starting next month should produce 400,000 tonnes, or 6.7 million bags, in the top growing province of Daklak, down 5.9 percent from the previous harvest, a provincial official said.
Vietnam is the world& # 39;s second-largest coffee exporter after Brazil. Its output, one-third of which comes from Daklak, has been forecast to drop between 15-20 percent in the coming season, adding to pressure on global prices because of shrinking supply. Output still depends on the weather, because any storm during the harvest could cause cherries to drop early and worsen the quality," Nguyen Van Sinh, deputy director of Daklak& # 39;s Agriculture Department, told Reuters in an interview on Friday. As of this September, the weather has been very favourable for coffee, excluding minor impact from rain during the blossom period that ruined some flowers," he said, adding the harvest in Daklak was expected to peak in December, as usual. He said farmers could make a profit if domestic prices were around 25,000 dong ($1.4) per kg, as their production costs, excluding the cost of hiring extra labour, stood at up to 14,000 dong per kg. Dealers put the cost higher, at 20,000 dong per kg. On Friday prices in Daklak stood at 24,500-24,800 dong per kg, versus 24,300-24,800 dong early this week, after London November futures <LRCX9> fell $6 to $1,420 a tonne on Thursday. Sinh revised up Daklak& # 39;s output from the previous bumper harvest that ended in January to 425,000 tonnes, or 7.08 million 60 kg bags, from a previous provincial forecast of 6.3-6.7 million bags. The chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said last month that Vietnam& # 39;s coffee output could drop between 15 and 20 percent in 2009/2010 to between 16 million and 17 million bags due to adverse weather. However, traders expect a smaller fall. In a Reuters poll on July 15, the median output estimate from traders for 2009/2010 was 19 million bags, versus 19.5 million bags in 2008/2009. The coffee crop year runs from October to September. Global coffee output in 2009/10 is forecast to stand at around 127 million bags, against 127.288 million in 2008/09, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in its monthly report for August. Vinanet
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